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Wednesday, June 4, 2025

Pearl River, NY… In case you missed it, Dan Clark at Capital Confidential reported on a leaked memo from Deep Root Analytics suggesting Rep. Mike Lawler is in the best position of any Republican in New York State to challenge Kathy Hochul. The memo also notes that New York is an anomaly, as their national modeling shows that New York has continued to shift to the right since October 2024. 

Capital Confidential: Lawler has the best shot at beating Hochul, polling analysis finds

By Dan Clark

A new polling memo that’s making the rounds among Republicans in New York and Washington, D.C., could spell good news for U.S. Rep. Mike Lawler.

Lawler is one of at least two Republicans seriously considering a run for governor in New York next year against whoever wins the Democratic primary. The other is Rep. Elise Stefanik, a top conservative ally of President Donald J. Trump.

But the polling memo found that may not be to Stefanik’s benefit if she decides to run.

“Bearing in mind the volume of moderate voters in the state, it’s clear that a moderate Republican with a track record of delivering bipartisan state and local victories is best positioned to compete with a Democrat in a gubernatorial general election scenario,” said the memo from Deep Root Analytics, a firm often employed by Republicans.

That’s because of the firm’s findings on how voters said they identified politically between five ideological buckets: MAGA, traditional conservative, moderate, traditional liberal and progressive.

A plurality of voters — 26% — identified as moderate, while 17% said they were a traditional conservative and 15% said they fell into the MAGA camp, the memo said.

Stefanik is not viewed among Republicans, or political observers in general, as a moderate. She’s closely aligned with Trump and, consequently, has strong support from conservatives and the MAGA movement.

She received a 48% favorability rating from conservatives in the most recent Siena poll. But self-identified moderates only gave her a 23% favorability rating.

Lawler received a 22% favorability rating from moderates in that poll but had a larger share of voters who had no opinion of him — 52% vs.39% for Stefanik. That gives Lawler more room for his numbers to grow.

Here’s a translation: Lawler and Stefanik can both appeal to conservative voters. But Lawler would appeal more to moderate voters than Stefanik, the polling memo from Deep Root Analytics said.

“Lawler’s track record with this voter type — paired with his consistent focus on winning local bipartisan messages … give credence to a viewpoint that suggests Lawler is better positioned to compete in a statewide gubernatorial general election than any other Republican in New York,” the memo said.

If he wants to prove that point, he’ll have some ground to make up. The Siena poll from last month had Stefanik ahead of Lawler in a primary by 13 points.

“So we are putting the pieces together,” Stefanik said in a radio interview Tuesday. “If we do this, this will be the most well-funded, the most well-organized statewide campaign since when we last won with George Pataki.”

Click HERE to read the article. 

Click HERE to view the Deep Root Analytics memo. 

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