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Fourteen of the Crystal Ball’s last 17 Toss-ups shifted towards the Democrats today. NY-17 was one of the three that didn’t.

Pearl River, NY — November 2, 2026… Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball put out its last ratings of the year today, a day before the election, and moved Mike Lawler’s race from Toss-up to Leans Republican. The only other Toss-ups to go towards Republicans today were Kentucky’s open KY-6 and Ann Wagner’s MO-2.

Harris won NY-17 in 2024 by less than a point, and Lawler won it by six points over Mondaire Jones. Lawler, Brian Fitzpatrick and Don Bacon were the only three Republicans to win Harris districts that year. Fitzpatrick’s PA-1 went to Leans Democratic today, and Bacon’s open NE-2 is rated Likely Democratic.

Back in June, a week before her primary, Cait Conley told Simon Rosenberg on Hopium Chronicles that Lawler and the Republicans “are so scared to have Mike Lawler face me in November because they know I will beat him.” In August she went on Morning Joe and said it was a priority for Democratic leadership “to make sure we send Mike Lawler packing in November.”

“The DCCC told everybody back in July that Mike was on the ropes,” said Lawler for Congress Campaign Manager Ciro Riccardi. “Three months later the Crystal Ball moved Mike’s race to Leans Republican. Hakeem Jeffries and his political advisors may cost Democrats dozens of House seats with the tens of millions they’ve spent trying to unseat Mike, and the race is still shifting in our favor.”

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