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A McLaughlin & Associates survey of 400 likely voters puts Lawler at 50 percent, ahead by 12 points with unaffiliated voters, and finds he is the only candidate in the race with a net-positive image.

Pearl River, NY — October 2, 2026 —  A new survey of New York’s 17th Congressional District shows Congressman Mike Lawler leading Democrat Cait Conley 50% to 47%. The poll, conducted by McLaughlin & Associates on behalf of Lawler for Congress, surveyed 400 likely general election voters from September 28 to 30 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9%.

Lawler holds 92 percent of Republicans, wins unaffiliated and third-party voters 52% to 40%, and takes 20% of registered Democrats, in a sample where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 44% to 31%, a number he has held in every election.

Lawler is the only candidate in the race with a net-positive image, 50% favorable to 46% unfavorable. Conley is underwater at 42% favorable to 48% unfavorable. Among unaffiliated voters, she is at 36% favorable to 52% unfavorable.

At the top of the ticket, Republican Bruce Blakeman leads Governor Kathy Hochul 51% to 47% among NY-17 voters and carries unaffiliated voters 55% to 37%.

The results track a previous independent public survey of the district, a co/efficient poll of 1,292 likely voters released July 23 that had Lawler ahead 50% to 45%, winning unaffiliated voters 54% to 39% and taking 23% of Democrats.

“Mike Lawler is in pole position with a month to go. Cait Conley is underwater with the district as a whole, worse with independents, and that will only get worse as more people learn about her shady pay-for-play, no-show job with AI defense contractors. People in the Hudson Valley don’t want to be represented by a carpetbagger who doesn’t own a home here, doesn’t pay taxes here, and wants to raise their taxes by nearly $4,000,” said Lawler for Congress campaign manager Ciro Riccardi. 

The full polling memo can be found here.

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