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Independent co/efficient polling shows Mike Lawler leads Cait Conley 50 to 45, and Lawler is up 15 points with independent voters in critical House race.

Pearl River, NY — 7/23/2026… A new survey from independent polling firm co/efficient shows Congressman Mike Lawler leading Cait Conley 50% to 45% in New York’s 17th District, with just 5% undecided. The survey sampled almost 1,300 likely general election voters. Lawler’s lead is built on crossover support from his independent brand. Lawler wins unaffiliated voters 54 to 39, and takes 23 percent of registered Democrats. 

The poll also shows New York Democrats badly underwater in NY-17. New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani posts a 37-53 job rating in the district, Governor Kathy Hochul sits at 36-49, and 63 percent of likely voters, including a 51 percent majority who are very concerned, worry about the rise of socialism in New York. Among independents, that concern hits 64 percent. 

Two weeks ago, Conley’s allies were telling a very different story. On July 8, House Majority PAC, the super PAC whose entire mission is electing House Democrats, released a poll claiming Conley led 51% to 45%. Who ran that poll? FM3 Research, a Democratic polling firm, on the PAC’s dime. Conley’s campaign then blasted out a release the same day declaring she was “surging.”

“Cait Conley’s campaign has spent the past month claiming she’s ‘taking the lead.’ Her whole campaign is riding on a number her DC donors and funders paid for, and an independent survey of nearly 1,300 voters just showed Mike Lawler winning this race by 5 points, all while crushing Cait amongst independent voters,” said Lawler for Congress campaign manager Ciro Riccardi. “If Cait has to rely on her DC donors to continue to prop up her campaign, she’s in for a rude awakening in November. We anticipate Mike will be ‘surging’ past Cait on Election Night as he heads towards a third term of delivering for Hudson Valley voters. Fortunately for Cait, she can go back to her lucrative consulting for AI defense contractors, maybe even helping advise them on who to deport next.”

The full polling memo can be found HERE.

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